Rahul - a winner or a loser in UP?

Uttar Pradesh is a state where votes are  based on Caste and community. BSP was in power but people were fed up of corruption by BSP leader & CM Mayawati. The other alternative UP people had was SP and so they voted in favor of SP and that’s the reason of SP's leading results. SP and BSP are the only two major parties of UP.

Rahul Gandhi took leading role in UP elections. His campaigns started in the month of November at the time when no other political party was campaigning. He held roughly 200 rallies in UP. Rahul Gandhi's main or internal aim was to have good number of seats and not the formation of Government in UP which he would never speak.  Congress party is very weak in UP and Rahul campaign was to strengthen the party position in UP which he seems to be achieving as congress is likely to get better number of seats this time. Rahul Gandhi's focus was and still is on general elections scheduled for 2014. He always thinks long term.

Rahul Gandhi never projected himself as CM in UP and so people probably took him as an outsider who only came for campaigning in UP and would go after elections. Congress is trailing because it has not been able to woo large population of UP which is divided on the basis of Caste, religion and community. Moreover Congress is not doing well at centre which everyone is seeing in UP. All MPs of Congress in UP are non-performing. In such a scenario, how can one expect congress to form Government in UP. Congress is still a winner. It’s going to pocket good number of seats this time as compared to last time in 2007.

India confused between Iran and Israel

Attack on Israel diplomat’s wife on Feb 13 in New Delhi has brought India into a dilemma over deciding whom to support - Iran or Israel. This confusion was created after Israel accused Iran of its involvement in the terror attack. Similar attacks were witnessed in Bangkok and Georgia on Israelis. The only country involved in these attacks is Iran as Israel believes. India is abstaining from giving any statement against Iran because of its long and cordial relations with Iran. Iran is oil rick and India is oil poor. India, in no condition, want it relations with Iran to be strained. Iran is the second largest oil supplier to India after Saudi Arabia. Recently Iran had threatened India of stopping oil supply on account of non payment of $5 billion for oil. At this instance, India decided to diversify its oil imports from other countries. However problem didn’t worsen as India paid all the dues. In January this year, India became the world’s largest Iranian crude oil. India imported an estimated 2.2 million metric tonnes in January as compared to roughly 1.4 million metric tonnes every month in previous year. India can’t afford to anger Iran for one of its important needs is met by Iran. On the other shore is Israel which is the second largest weapon supplier to India after Russia. Weapons are among basic needs of India. However good India tries to be with China or Pakistan, they continue to remain India’s enemies. As long as India continues to take initiatives to improve relations with these two countries, they won’t attack India. Firing is not uncommon on Indo-Pak border of Kashmir. Recently Chinese troop had entered Indian Territory and destroyed some old Army bunkers and tents in Chumar division of Nyoma sector, about 300 kilometres from Leh which China clearly denied. China has been continuously making efforts to surround India as part of its strategy – String of pearls. In such a situation a country can’t survive without sufficient weapons to counter such attacks. India believes in defensive strategy rather than offensive which is actually the strategy followed by Pakistan and China. Relationship of India with Israel is as important as with Iran. If India stands with Israel at this point, it’s ok but if India stands with Iran, it’s not ok with Israel. India is working hard to balance its relationship with both countries. India did join diplomatic initiative by the US and Israel in UN security council to issue statement condemning terror attack on Israeli diplomat but at the same time ensured no statement would be issued against Iran by saying investigation is still in progress.

Nasheed’s resignation - Result of coup

Mohamed Nasheed, President of Maldives says he is victim of coup which Mohamed Waheed Hassan and military deny. Nasheed said he was forced to resign with guns all around him and he was told that if he didn’t resign, military would not hesitate to use arms so, in order to avoid violence he had to step down. “I was forced to resign with guns all around me. They told me if I don’t resign, they wont hesitate to use arms”, said Nasheed.

He also said that Mohamed Waheed Hassan was involved in coup attempt as he wanted to take over the presidency and demanded immediate resignation from him.

The military denied it forced Nasheed to resign. There was no one in military who could point gun towards Nasheed, said Brigadier General Ibrahim Didi.

Though Nasheed stepped down, but he has not accepted his defeat. He said, "We will come to power again. We will never step back. I will not accept this coup and will bring justice to the Maldivian."

Arrest warrant has been issued for Nasheed on account of his claim of being ousted by a coup and violence spread in Male as thousands of his supporter swept into the streets of Male and clashed with security forces. His house is surrounded by his supporters. His family has already left Maldives for Sri Lanka.

Countries are closely watching the development in Maldives.  A UN special envoy Assistant Secretary General Oscar Fernandez-Taranco is arriving Male on Friday for talks with the new administration in the Maldives. A top Indian Foreign Office official is also flying to Male on Friday as the situation in Maldives is volatile and has not stabilized. US envoy Blake has planned his visit on Saturday.

Nasheed resigned on 7th Feb amid weeks of opposition led protests in Maldives and handed over presidency to Waheed Hassan. This was the news that first came in. His resignation followed police getting hold of State TV broadcasting facilities and broadcasting opposition calls for President Mohamed Nasheed to resign.

Crisis peaked when hundreds of policemen demonstrated in capital Male on the official order of withdrawal of protection to government and opposition supporters protesting close to each other. Protection withdrawal resulted in clash between two parties injuring three, forcing troops to fire rubber bullets at police. This was followed by clash between police and military. On Tuesday, 18 police and army men took control of military headquarters and demanded Nasheed’s resignation.

Protests began in January after Nasheed ordered military to arrest top criminal court judge who is considered to be Ex President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom’s loyal on charge of corruption and political biasness involving his order to release Government critic under Gayoom’s influence. Judge was detained by military despite Supreme Court and prosecutor order of his release. Then Vice president Hassan criticized the arrest of Judge and ordered the release of detained critic. “When it comes to the judiciary, its head is the chief justice and the rulings of the chief justice should be obeyed by all parties,” Hassan said. But he also acknowledged that he and Nasheed could still work together.

Gayoom ruled Maldives for 30 years under one party system until 2008 when Nasheed won multi party elections. Nahseed was arrested 27 times under Gayoom reign and was jailed for almost six years in all on being a political activist. Mr Nasheed is best known globally as an environmental campaigner passionate about human rights to a stable climate. He hit the global headlines three years ago when he held a cabinet meeting under water to highlight global warming and the threat to his nation.

Struggle between Pak Govt and Military

Tension between Pakistan civil government and military is not likely to go down any time soon. On one side where Military doesn’t seem to have faith on government, Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani sacked defence secretary, retired Lieutenant General Naeem Khalid Lodhi, on Jan 11 with an allegation of "gross misconduct and illegal action which created misunderstanding between institutions”. Next day Army announced it would not acknowledge Nargis Sethi as Lodhi's replacement. An army officer also made it clear that they would not react violently to the appointment of new defence secretary but at the same time, would not cooperate with the secretary. Lodhi was the most senior civil servant responsible for military affairs, who acted as the bridge between government and military. Lodhi’s suspension came amid Kayani’s warning to Gilani against allegations leveled against him and ISI chief Lt Gen Ahmed Shuja Pasha. Gilani alleged that affidavit filing by army and ISI chief in Supreme Court on memo scandal without the permission of government was unconstitutional.
{What is Memogate scandal? There are allegation that Hussain Haqqani, close aide of Zardari and former Pakistani Ambassador to US had sent a memo to the former U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman, Mike Mullen in May, seeking US intervention in preventing a coup in Pakistan after the Abbottabad operation. Haqqani had to resign amid controversies. Probe has already started to identify reason and role of Zardari in the memo scandal.}
In response, Kayani warned Gilani that his statement would have dire consequences on the country and he needs to clarify or withdraw his statement. Kayani’s warning lead to sacking of Defence Secretary Lodhi which further worsened the tussle.
Gilani was summoned on January 19 in the case of contempt for not obeying an order to reopen corruption probes into the country's president. Supreme Court wants Gilani to write to Swiss authorities to reopen corruption case against Zardari which government had refused to earlier. He got two weeks breather from Supreme Court as he presented before court. “Zardari has complete immunity inside and outside the country. It will not give a good message to proceed against a President elected by two-thirds majority. A president could not be handed over to foreign courts,'' Gilani told the court, referring to approaching Swiss authorities. Controversies have left several questions unanswered. Will same Government continue to rule? Will it lead to early elections? Is Military coup an option?

Google Vs Vinay Rai

Scenerio goes like this… Kapil Sibal invites chiefs of Google, Facebook, Yahoo, Microsoft etc. and asks to remove the cartoons of politicians uploaded on these websites. IT companies refuse to comply with his direction. Matters cools down with Kapil Sibal backward step. Suddenly, a 39 years old journalist of weekly Urdu newspapers Akbari files plea in Supreme Court against the content on these websites. Does it look self motivated or a conspiracy by Government or just a publicity stunt?

We spoke to Mr. Vinay Rai, man who filed plea in Supreme Court. “Pictures uploaded on these social networking websites are objectionable, in the form of cartoons and comic pictures of God and Goddess which hurt religious sentiments of people and can cause communal violence. Nudity and obscenity are common on these websites”, said Mr. Rai. He also added that every website should review the content before it be uploaded as they do with the feedback that they receive about their websites. On being asked why he filed plea on Jan 17 after Kapil Sibal episode, he replied, “I approached Kapil Sibal five months back and in December also along with Muslim leaders. Sibal was only concerned about cartoon pictures of politicians such as Sonia Gandhi, Manmohan Singh, etc. He backtracked when he got no positive response from website owners.” If Mr. Rai is to be believed, then he is self motivated and has no influence of Kapil Sibal or any other political leader.

Then we contacted Mr. N.K. Kaul, an advocate representing Google. As per him, it’s not technically possible to block these websites in India or to remove all the content already uploaded on websites. “If Mr. Rai or any other individual finds something objectionable on websites, then he should report the content as spam/obscene to website itself instead of moving to court. “Sex” is an objectionable word but in our passports, voter ID cards, gender is written as “Sex”, that doesn’t mean Google will block important information pertaining to passport or voter ID cards. Same goes for “virgin”. This word is also part of virgin airlines. Google can’t block as it will deprive surfers of important information”, said Mr. Kaul. Mr. Kaul refused to comment on the motive behind filing of plea against these websites by Mr. Rai.

 In today’s world, people are smart enough to decide what is right and what is wrong. Any sensible man would report the objectionable content to website. If each person moves to court, then court would be too small to accommodate all. It has been observed that websites take action on reported content. In terms of IT knowledge, India is advancing at a very fast pace. Almost every person has an account on Facebook and similar social networking websites. Important is we regulate ourselves, instead of trying to regulate websites. Generation Y is much smarter and faster than Generation X. Any content cannot remain hidden for long.

Tie up; No tie up

Mamata Banerjee, chief of the biggest ally of UPA government has kept Congress on tenterhook. Since Trinamool has joined UPA, clouds are hanging over government. It’s a party, UPA can’t depend upon. The most crucial time when UPA needed it the most in parliament in its support over Lokpal Bill, Trinamool was standing with the opposition with its demand to remove Lokayukta clause. Mamata said that centre was framing laws which were binding on state and centre should not impinge on state matters. Centre should be concerned about Lokpal at centre and not Lokayukta at state as that’s the matter of state and should be left to be dealt by the state only. Trinamool has 19 members in Lok Sabha and 6 in Rajya Sabha. The moment Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee announced FDI in retail sector, Mamata attacked back saying decision had to be rolled back and she didn’t pacify until Pranab da gave her assurance. She said it was a unilateral decision of UPA and announcement was made without consultation with allies. Mamata even threatened to withdraw support at UPA’s decision to hike fuel prices. Before this, Mamata even refused to accompany Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on his visit to Bangladesh where he was initially likely to sign treaty on equal water sharing of Teesta river with Bangladesh. Despite Manmohan’s assurance to Manmohan that treaty would not be signed, Mamata remained firm on not being part of the trip scheduled for Sep 6 and 7. Mamata was among five chief ministers of Assam, Tripura, Mizoram and Meghalaya, who were to accompany Manmohan in Bangladesh but Mamata pulled out at the last moment and government had to face embarrassment. The latest one was the dispute over renaming Indira bhavan in Kolkata after the poet Nazrul Islam. All limits were crossed when both parties came out in open with their arms up. Congress staged protest against Trinamool decision over renaming the Bhavan. Responding to this, Trinamool accused Congress of having colluded with CPI(M) which is the main opposition party of Trinamool Congress in West Bengal and ruled for 34 years before Trinamool Congress came in power in 2011. Mamata said, “ Congress is protesting over renaming of Bhavan but it never protested when the Bhavan was being used by Jyoti Basu as CPM party office during his regime of 34 years. Despite all this I have never used strong words against Sonia or Manmohan Singh”. It’s just the beginning. There is more to see in future. Big question is whether Trinamool would remain with Congress or move separately!

Lokpal: Whom to blame?

Did Government actually want voting to take place? Government knew bill would not be passed if put to vote but at the same time, it didn't want to be termed as a loser. Government was not opposed to bill, why should it be! The biggest problem it faced was it could not convince its own Members of Parliament. Trinamool Congress was firm on opposing the bill in Rajya Sabha as it was not in favour of having Lokayuktas in states. Sixteen of its MPs were missing in Lok Sabha on Tuesday when they were needed the most. Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee who never gets quite, lost his tongue in Rajya Sabha on Thursday. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh was seen sitting like an idol with no expressions on face. They were the observers waiting for time to pass and that’s what happened. No voting could take place. House was adjourned sine die. It was a win-win situation for all. BJP didn’t want such a bill to be passed. Government saved itself from shameful defeat. Team Anna was also happy as it was always opposed to Government version of bill. After the bill was passed in Lok Sabha, started the blame game, with Congress charging BJP of double standards and Sonia coming out with statement in her Italian accent, ”BJP ka asli chehra deka” (We saw real face of BJP). This was well responded by Sushma Swaraj in her statement that it was not responsibility of BJP to fulfill Rahul Gandhi’s and Arun Jaitley saying in Rajya Sabha that Government had choreographed the proceedings such that there is no time left for voting. Government is not just accountable to people of India. India in May 2011 ratified the United Nations Convention against Corruption. India ranks 95 among 183 countries in Transparency International's Corruption Perception Index (CPI) which is only a reflection of India’s poor performance on corruption. Lokpal Bill was first introduced in 1968 in Lok Sabha and passed in 1969 but died due to dissolution of House. Legislation was revived in 1971, 1977, 1985, 1989, 1996, 1998 and 2001 but it could never survive. Manmohan Singh, in 2004, assured that his UPA Government would enact the bill but that situation has not come yet even after 7 years. Who knows the future of Lokpal! Poor Lokpal!

Why Anna failed to gather enough support this time?

Anna has so far fasted four times. His first fast was at Jantar Mantar in April which went on for five days. His second fast was in Ramlila Maidan in August for 12 days. Third fast was a day long fast at Jantar Mantar on Dec 11. And the latest one was in MMRDA ground in Mumbai which started on Dec 27 and was to end on Dec 29 but had to be called off on Dec 28. Why is it that Anna had to call off fast a day before pre decided date? Probably, Anna has realized that same thing will not be taken with same enthusiasm every time by people. The 12 days fast of August was the most successful one with people from all walks of life coming down to the streets and protesting against corruption. More than one lac people had gathered in Ramlila Maidan in August. This gathering had supporters from different states of India. Public March happened everywhere in the country. Every person of team Anna was clean and pure then gradually many episodes came up. Arvind Kejriwal cought up in the controversy of violating bond rules by quitting the service before completing three years of service after going on a study leave on full pay leading him to pay Rs 9,27,787 to income Tax department. Kiran Bedi accused of presenting inflated air travel bills to her hosts then Arvind Kejriwal coming forward with a statement that Kiran Bedi should not have done so and that had he been in Kiran Bedi’s place, he would not have done that. At a point team Anna appeared divided. Kiran Bedi didn’t accept the mistake she had committed. If she wanted money for poor kids, she should have asked for donation in open, why she had to give inflated bills to her hosts! It was a compulsory donation that she had taken from her hosts. Not acceptable to people! Secondly, what was the logic behind fast of Dec 11 when Parliament was in session and working towards bringing Lokpal Bill? People are not against Anna, they are against the ways now being adopted by team Anna. To People, team Anna appears to be building undue pressure on government. It’s not giving them chance to perform. Lets see how much effective his campaign in poll bounds states would be!!

Indo Pak talk on CBMs from today (Dec 26, 2011)

India and Pakistan have begun Confidence Building Measures (CBM) talk in Islamabad today. The talk is resumed after four years. Today’s talk would focus on conventional CBMs including issues related to Jammu and Kashmir, Cross LoC trade and travel, Missile tests etc are to be discussed today. Nuclear issues would be discussed in tomorrow’s meeting. The 10 member Indian delegation is led by D. Bala Verma, Director General (Disarmament and International Security Affairs). Pakistan delegation is lead by Additional Secretary Munawar Saeed Bhatti (formerly deputy high commissioner in India). On January 1, 2012 India and Pakistan will again exchange lists of nuclear installations, probably the oldest India-Pak CBM that has survived.

Anna to fast again from Dec 27

Anna Hazare will fast again from tomorrow Dec 27, 2011 for three days in MMRDA ground of Mumbai over weak Lokpal Bill. Fast would be followed by “Jail bharo” agitation. So far more than 1 lac people have registered to be part of Jail Bharo agitation. After Anna returns from Mumbai, he would stage dharna outside Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi residence. They have demanded to make CBI independent and non partisan. CBI is believed to be manipulated and so its investigation is also influenced. Anna recently launched an attack on P. Chidambaram saying, “Had Lokpal bill been in place, P. Chidambaram would have been in Jail”. Several Congress politicians have caught up in war of words with Anna. Team Anna has decided to campaign against Congress in five poll bound states— Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Goa, Manipur and Punjab if Government fails to bring out strong Lokpal Bill. Anna went on his first five-day fast in April at Jantar Mantar, followed by second and most successful 12 days fast in August in Ramlila Maidan. A day long fast was also observed at Jantar Mantar on Dec 11. Parliament winter session has been extended for three days. It would conclude on Dec 29. Lokpal Bill is expected to be introduced in Parliament on Dec 27.